The Follies of Experts makes the point that our reliance on experts is misguided. Experts not only don’t predict whats going to happen, but actually think it’s not even a possibility. Events are not miscalculated, but are not even included. The breakdown of the Soviet Union, and the rise of Putin was seen to most academics studying Sovietology as impossible. How could they think the theory possible that would dis-invest them of their subject?
The idea that Western Liberalism and the Free Market would not sweep across the world uninterrupted and without resistance was always toted as unreasonable and impossible. Events of the last year have proven otherwise. Much to our surprise.
History cannot be predicted by a set of rules. Experts and academics have been consistently wrong.
To move the conversation on it seems what is predictable is that we invest in failed experts and academics, whether they turn out to be right or wrong. In fact we consistently invest in unreliable sources hoping that they will be right. But they never are.
It is a surprise to us that others so not want to do what we do, or like what we like. If we like it, why wouldn’t they? Smaller stuff like taste in foods etc is acceptable. But the bigger you get – like life style or politics it becomes more impossible to imagine why others would not want to live like us. Why doesn’t the world not want freedom, or a free market?
Perhaps if everyone liked and wanted the same things that we wanted, life would be more predictable. It makes us feel safe to think or hope that others are the same as us. To temper our fear we try to feel safe by creating tiny, smaller, and bigger worlds where we are all the same. Our family, our friends, our neighbourhoods, our countries, are all our worlds. We want these groups to support us and make us feel safe. When they don’t we feel threatened. We look inward. Our position becomes more entrenched, and then others have to fit in even more to what we like or want.
You could say the European Union (EU) is like this. Formed from a good intention of not wanting to be at war: it has become a collection of like minded countries who cannot understand why others don’t want to join them. Perhaps this fear alone can predict the end of the Union based on its present values. The EU values don’t suit or benefit everybody. The EU didn’t predict this.
The EU elite missed the fact that just because they benefit from the EU, others do not.
Copyright Adrian Scott North London Counsellor Blog 2017
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Disclaimer:This weblog is the view of the writer and for general information only.
This article is designed to provoke argument and critique